Tuesday 24 May 2011

Not even close...

Both of my picks on Tuesday ran very poor races, which is disheartening to say the least. Both were extremely well supported from the prices I advised them at (Swift Chap advised @10/1 and sent off 9/2, Ginger Jack advised @25/1 and sent off @14/1), which is always good to see because you know you're not the only person who fancies them to run well. It's no good if the horses don't back the support up with a decent run though! Both finished well down their respective fields, and I'll probably leave the 2 of them alone until they begin to show a bit more form.

It's probably time to update the stats, as it's been a while since I did it:

Number of bets: 44
Winners: 6
Placed: 5
Staked: 96 points
Returned: 133.65 points
Profit/Loss: +37.65 points

I'm happy enough with how those stats look, as any profit is always good to see. My strike rate of bets placed to winners/placed horses is rather disappointing though, and is something I hope to improve on.

Wednesday has a few decent looking races on, and I feel I've got a winner picked out at Ayr.

Ayr 3.15 - Judge 'N Jury - 3pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
Judge 'N Jury is a previous selection of mine on this blog, when he ran a cracking race to come 4th at York 13 days ago (Advised @ 20/1, sent off @14/1). He now takes a drop in class, and was also dropped 1 pound by the handicapper, so a similar performance should have him right in the thick of things come the finishing line tomorrow. He reopposes Paul Hanagan's mount Duchess Dora again tomorrow, who is currently 7/2 joint favourite with my selection, and who finished 6th last time out behind my seletion. Judge 'N Jury has 8 career wins, all coming over tomorrow's 5 furlong trip. The ground conditions for the race tomorrow are currently described as Soft, and Judge 'N Jury is one of only 3 horses in the field to have won on soft ground before. He is running off a mark of 90 tomorrow, which is 8 pounds below his previous winning mark and 15 pounds below it's all time high winning mark. He's on quite a long losing run, dating back to July 2009, but the run last time out certainly shows that Judge 'N Jury still has the ability to win races. The drop in class for this race tomorrow definitely leaves him with a great chance to get his head in front again. Duchess Dora is currently the joint favourite with my selection, but they meet each other on similar terms to last time and Duchess Dora's lack of form on soft ground must be seen as a concern. I'm having medium win stakes on Judge 'N Jury in expectation of a big run.

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