Friday 27th May selections

Watch Amigo, who runs in the 4.05 race at Newmarket

My one selection on Wednesday, Judge 'N Jury, ran an ok race to finish 4th in the end. travelled well in the early stages of the race and was right up with the pace, but faded tamely enough in the closing stages. Ginger Ted, who went on to win the race, was actually one of the few horses in the race who I could have made a case for, so I was surprised to see him win.

I didn't back anything on Thursday, as I never got a chance to study the cards in enough depth to make a solid selection, but I've been studying Friday's cards for a while now and I've picked out one horse I fancy to run a big race.

Newmarket 4.05 - Watch Amigo - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)
An open looking 17 runner handicap run over 7 furlongs, and I've decided to have a small each way bet on Walter Swinburn's runner Watch Amigo. Watch Amigo is a very lightly raced 5 year old, having only had 10 career starts. He didn't finish out of the top 4 in his first 7 races of his career, but signed off last season with 2 average enough efforts in, although they were in decent races. Watch Amigo returned from a 226 day absence off the track when coming 10th of 14 at Kempton 25 days ago. That was over an inadequate 8 furlongs, so tomorrow's drop back to 7 furlongs will suit. Watch Amigo has won 3 of his 10 starts, and came 2nd twice, all of these efforts came over 7 furlongs, which shows just how inadequate that 8 furlong trip last time out was. He was entitled to need the run regardless and should strip much fitter in preparation for this race tomorrow. The Swinburn yard is absolutely flying at the moment and are banging in the winners left, right and centre, and hopefully they'll get another one here. Watch Amigo is 5 pounds higher than his previous winning mark, but he has placed in a similar standard race as tomorrow's off the same mark as tomorrow before, and with his lightly raced profile and hopefully more natural improvement to come, he should run a very good race.

Not even close...

Both of my picks on Tuesday ran very poor races, which is disheartening to say the least. Both were extremely well supported from the prices I advised them at (Swift Chap advised @10/1 and sent off 9/2, Ginger Jack advised @25/1 and sent off @14/1), which is always good to see because you know you're not the only person who fancies them to run well. It's no good if the horses don't back the support up with a decent run though! Both finished well down their respective fields, and I'll probably leave the 2 of them alone until they begin to show a bit more form.

It's probably time to update the stats, as it's been a while since I did it:

Number of bets: 44

Winners: 6

Placed: 5

Staked: 96 points

Returned: 133.65 points

Profit/Loss: +37.65 points

I'm happy enough with how those stats look, as any profit is always good to see. My strike rate of bets placed to winners/placed horses is rather disappointing though, and is something I hope to improve on.

Wednesday has a few decent looking races on, and I feel I've got a winner picked out at Ayr.

Ayr 3.15 - Judge 'N Jury - 3pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Judge 'N Jury is a previous selection of mine on this blog, when he ran a cracking race to come 4th at York 13 days ago (Advised @ 20/1, sent off @14/1). He now takes a drop in class, and was also dropped 1 pound by the handicapper, so a similar performance should have him right in the thick of things come the finishing line tomorrow. He reopposes Paul Hanagan's mount Duchess Dora again tomorrow, who is currently 7/2 joint favourite with my selection, and who finished 6th last time out behind my seletion. Judge 'N Jury has 8 career wins, all coming over tomorrow's 5 furlong trip. The ground conditions for the race tomorrow are currently described as Soft, and Judge 'N Jury is one of only 3 horses in the field to have won on soft ground before. He is running off a mark of 90 tomorrow, which is 8 pounds below his previous winning mark and 15 pounds below it's all time high winning mark. He's on quite a long losing run, dating back to July 2009, but the run last time out certainly shows that Judge 'N Jury still has the ability to win races. The drop in class for this race tomorrow definitely leaves him with a great chance to get his head in front again. Duchess Dora is currently the joint favourite with my selection, but they meet each other on similar terms to last time and Duchess Dora's lack of form on soft ground must be seen as a concern. I'm having medium win stakes on Judge 'N Jury in expectation of a big run.

Tuesday 24th May selections

Unfortunately, my 2 longshots at The Curragh on Sunday didn't run very well.

See You Smile was prominant in the early stages but faded poorly to finish down the field.


Vivacious Vivienne had a tough job on from such a wide draw, but she tracked across well to run at the back of the pack early on. I thought the jockey could have done more throughout the race to get her in a more prominant position, because when she did get into the home straight she ran on well for 7th. With more positive tactics early on in the race I feel it could have run into a place.

-4 points for the day.

I didn't back anything on Monday as the quality of racing wasn't great, but I've got twos bet picked out for tomorrow's cards at Chepstow and Ripon which will hopefully go well at tasty odds.


Chepstow 3.20 - Swift Chap - 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet365)
Swift Chap hasn't won a race since October 2009, but that losing run has to come to an end eventually and I feel tomorrow is that day. He won that race well off a mark of 76, and tomorrow he runs off an attractive mark of 67. 2 of his 4 career victories have come over tomorrow's 8 furlong trip, and he'll certainly be a fan of the good to firm ground. Swift Chap has also placed off marks of 83 and 85 in higher class races to the one he runs in tomorrow, so a case can certainly be made for him being "well in" here. He ran an average race on his return to action at Sandown 31 days ago, but he's never ran very well off a long break throughout his career so that outing wouldn't worry me too much. That race was a better race than he runs in today, and he's been dropped a further 3 pounds by the handicapper since then, so he looks to have a great chance of getting his head in front here tomorrow. Small win stakes for me as the long losing run is a concern, but he's potentially thrown in here off this mark in this standard of race.

Ripon 3.40 - Ginger Jack - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
Ginger Jack switched hands during the winter months for quite a sum, having progressed well in handicaps last season. He made his comeback 11 days ago from a lengthy winter break over an inadequate 7 furlongs trip, and he clearly needed the run to blow off the cobwebs. He returns to his favourite trip of a mile here tomorrow, having recorded all 4 career victories over this trip. He's only 2 pounds above his last winning mark, and I feel there's more progress to come from this horse. He's certainly got the ability to run a big race here judging by his form last season, and the 25/1 looks far too big. He's got a good draw in stall 2, which will help his chances of using his favoured tactics of racing prominantly throughout. The ground conditions will suit, and with a run under his belt, he'll surely strip fitter for this race tomorrow. Small e/w stakes in what looks a competitive heat.

I've had worse days...

...is a serious understatement. Having been relatively quiet during the week on the gambling front, I decided to have some tasty bets on Saturday as the quality of racing was decent.

Parisian Pyramid ran a good race, but it unfortunately wasn't good enough on the day as he eventually finished 3rd. He led entering the final furlong and looked like he had enough in him to hold on but Crown Choice produced a lovely late run under Alan Kirby to win going away in the end.

Spanish Duke unfortunately didn't handle the step up in class today. He travelled off the pace in the early stages and looked to be going well turning into the straight, but he didn't seem to find much for pressure and eventually weakened to finish last.

Masamah was undoubtadly the success story of the day for me. Having been backed last night at 12/1, he was sent off at 8/1 having been well punted before the off. Masamah bounced out of the stalls in front, and while he was joined briefly in the early stages of the race, he barely saw a rival throughout the whole race and hung on well from a fast finishing Doctor Parkes to win by half a length.

That win for Masamah meant a profit of 25 points for the day, which is impressive in anyone's books!

Unfortunately there's mainly jumps racing on tomorrow, with the only flat action coming at The Curragh in Co. Kildare. I don't usually like punting on the Irish racing but I've found 2 bets for tomorrow that look like good value to me.


The Curragh 2.10 - See You Smile - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports)
See You Smile is still quite a lightly raced filly, having only had 11 starts. Her one and only career win came on her seasonal debut last season after 218 days off the track. Tomorrow she makes her seasonal debut for 2011 after 212 days off the track, so hopefully she can produce a similar result to that one this time last year. That run was over 6 furlongs at Navan, the same trip she faces here tomorrow. The ground conditions at the moment say that it's Good to Firm at The Curragh at the moment. If this is the case then it'll be perfect for See You Smile, as she loves the good ground. However there's been plenty of rain on Saturday so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ground description change between now and race time tomorrow. See You Smile has never run on soft ground, so it's an unknown as to how she would handle it. Hopefully we'll have a dry morning tomorrow and the ground dries out from today's rain. See You Smile won that race mentioned above off a mark of 68, and while her follow up run was rather decent, she never really produced a good performance after that for the whole season. She was running off a mark of 79 at one stage, and now that it's back down to 70, it certainly appeals to me. Add in the fact that promising claimer Darren Egan takes off a further 7 pounds then See You Smile certainly looks to me running off a decent mark. Her draw in stall 10 looks ok, considering the last 2 winners of this race came from stalls 12 and 8 respectively, so stall 10 looks to be suitable for a prominant showing. I've decided to take Boylesports' 33/1 instead of Paddy Power's 25/1, despite the fact PP is paying 5 places compared to Boyles' 4 places. Fingers crossed for a decent run for my money.

The Curragh 3.40 - Vivacious Vivienne - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
I've decided to have a punt on the winner of this race last year, Vivacious Vivienne. Vivacious Vivienne was highly progressive last year, starting her campaign off a mark of 77, and having won her final start of the year at Leopardstown, she began this season off a mark of 93. Further progress this season in Listed and Group company means she's running off a mark of 97 tomorrow, which is 15 pounds higher than the mark she won this race off last year. However, her win at Leopardstown at the back end of last season came off 88, and with Conor Hoban's 7 pound claim tomorrow, she virtually gets in here off a mark of 90, which is well within her ability in my opinion. Her draw tomorrow is not ideal, in box 20, but she won this last year from the widest draw of them all so she's capable of winning from there. Vivacious Vivienne has had 2 runs so far this year, in better quality races than this. Both have been over inadequate trips, so the return to this 1m4f trip tomorrow will definitely suit. The drop in class here tomorrow is also a positive for her chances. She has bits of form on all sorts of ground, so she should handle the conditions whether there's rain or not. Vivacious Vivienne is an extremely consistent sort, either winning or placing in 39% of her career starts (18 starts, 5 wins, 2 places), and I'm confident she can run another big race here tomorrow.

Saturday May 21st selections

Not a bad run from Night Affair on Friday, eventually finishing 6th of the 7, but only around 2 lengths back from the winner, Collect Art. Unfortunately the favourite was too good on the day though.

Onto Saturday's racing, where there's some fantastic racing on both sides of the Irish Sea. I've got 3 selections picked out which will hopefully provide me with a few winners.

Goodwood 2.15 - Parisian Pyramid - 3pts win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
A 6 furlong handicap where 13 are scheduled to go to post, and I fancy last year's winner Parisian Pyramid to give it a very good shot at winning again. Parisian Pyramid ran a fairly average race on his seasonal comeback, where he probably needed the run. However, it's his most recent run that has caught my eye. He has done all of his winning over 6 furlongs, but last time out at Ascot he was running over an inadequate 7 furlongs. He raced prominantly for most of the race but weakened entering the final furlong. He now drops back to a more suitable 6 furlong trip, and he gets another pound off the handicapper for that run last time out. There were definite signs of a return to top form at Ascot, and fingers crossed he will hit top form again tomorrow. He won this race last year off a mark of 88, and he runs here tomorrow off 93. That mark is definitely within his reach, having placed in some top quality handicaps last season off 99, 98 and 96. Conditions are going to suit tomorrow, he enjoys his trips to Goodwood having won 2 out of 2 here, and he looks set to run another big race.

Goodwood 3.20 - Spanish Duke - 2pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill)
A previous selection on this blog, where Spanish Duke won his seasonal reappearance over this trip at Epsom. That day, he beat a decent field of handicappers easily. Having travelled supremely throughout, he cruised into the lead in the home straight and pulled away with a bit up his sleeve. He deservedly takes a step up in class here today, and I fully expect more natural improvement to come. Al Zir is a high class opponent, having ran in the Epsom Derby last year as well as some other high class races, but I think he may need this first run back in 7 months before we see the best of him this season. Spanish Duke is race fit after his comeback win, and with more natural improvement to come in my opinion, he looks to have a fantastic chance here tomorrow. The only negative is that Eddie Ahern doesn't take the ride, as he has been on board for all 5 of Spanish Duke's career victories. However, Ted Durcan has been a bit of a lucky charm for this blog so far with some nice priced winners so hopefully he can do me a favour again tomorrow. Conditions will suit, and it's just a matter of whether Spanish Duke can handle the step up in grade or not, and I'm confident that he can.

York 3.40 - Masamah - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)
A high class field consisting of 20 runners for this 5 furlong sprint handicap, where I'm very sweet on the chances of the Kevin Ryan trained Masamah. My selection ran an absolute cracker on his seasonal reappearance, finishing 3rd behind Doctor Parkes at Chester over 5 furlongs. Masamah had a very wide draw that day, which makes that result even more impressive considering how essential a low draw is at Chester. Doctor Parkes reopposes here today, where Masamah has a 4 pound pull at the weights for that previous run. Masamah runs here off the same mark he ran at Chester, whereas Doctor Parkes has been raised 4 pounds for his effort. Doctor Parkes is sure to run another good race, but I fancy Masamah to be able to reverse the result from the last time. Masamah will come on a lot for that run, with extra race fitness now assured. 4 of Masamah's 5 career wins have come over 5 furlongs, including one over course and distance. Masamah has won 5 of his 16 career starts, and placed on another 2 runs, so he's reliable when it comes to getting in the money. I'm having a decent e/w bet on him tomorrow in expectation of a big run from him.


I actually fancy quite a few horses at Chester tomorrow as well, but I've promised myself I wouldn't back anything at Chester ever again after the recent festival there. Brae Hill, Our Jonathan and Dazzling Light are all of interest to me, but I won't be going near them due to the track in question.

Not the greatest of days...

...but I was happy enough with my selections none the less.

Hacienda travelled well in the early stages of the race, travelling just off the pace. He looked to be going as well as anything about 3 furlongs out and I was beginning to get a bit excited but his challenge fizzled out weakly and he ended up finishing 8th. Not the worst run in the world, but I'll be leaving him alone for a while I think.

Warlu Way was extremely unlucky in running. He travelled like an absolute dream, but got boxed in behind a wall of horses about 2 furlongs out and couldn't find a gap to make his challege. Once he did get in the clear in the final furlong he ran on very well to claim 5th, but the winners were way too far ahead at that stage to challenge strongly. I'll be looking out for his next run with interest.

Onto tomorrow's selection, where I've one horse picked out that I think will run well.

Bath 3.40 - Night Affair - 1pt win @ 12/1 (William Hill)
Night Affair looks primed to run a big race here tomorrow in this 7 runner handicap over 5 and a half furlongs. She loves the track, having recorded 2 of her 3 career wins here. The first of those wins was almost exactly a year ago, over the same course and distance as tomorrow's race. She also encounters the same ground conditions as that race. Night Affair's best results have mainly come in small fields, so tomorrow's 7 runner race will suit her. Her comeback run this season wouldn't inspire confidence, but that race's form is working out very well with 4 subsequent winners coming out of it in the last 14 days. Fitness will be assured for Night Affair tomorrow after that run. Her mark has dropped to 75, the same mark she won off on her last visit to Bath. I would have a bigger bet on her except Collect Art looks to have a huge chance at the weights as well, considering she's officially 4 pounds well in. However, I'm going to have a small punt on what I think is the value bet in the race, Night Affair.

Thursday May 19th selections

Unfortunately Wednesday's selection, Epsom Salts, was declared a non runner so that's 3 days in a row with no selections from me. I feel it's time to put that right on Thursday though, and fingers crossed for a winner or 2!

Haydock 4.00 - Hacienda - 3pts win @ 11/1 (William Hill)
A competitive class 3 handicap over a mile, where a low draw is important if the last few years are anything to go by. The Mark Johnston trained Hacienda is the one to be with in my opinion. He ran a cracker on his seasonal debut, coming 2nd to Joseph Henry in a similar standard race to this. Hacienda was raised 2 pounds for that effort, but he ran a very encouraging race next time out in a higher class to come a relatively close up 6th, only beaten 2 and 3/4 lengths behind Wannabe King. Last time out, he didn't run his usual solid race when 10th of 15 at Thirsk behind Justonefortheroad. On Thursday he drops back in grade, and he's now back down to the mark of 90 he ran off for his seasonal debut. This contest has quite an open look to it, with 6/1 joint favourites She's A Character and Tartan Trip. I feel Hacienda should be around a 6/1 shot myself so the 11/1 available with William Hill is very enticing. Hacienda has been drawn in stall 4, which is perfect as low draws are important in this race, with the last 3 winners of this race coming from stalls 1, 5 and 3. With the good ground to suit, the drop in grade and his mark dropping back to 90, I feel he has a great chance to win this and the 11/1 is far too big.

Haydock 5.35 - Warlu Way - 2pts win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
A previous selection on this blog, Warlu Way won that day at Windsor at 12/1. He now takes a step up in trip to 12 furlongs, which looks sure to suit judging by his performance last time out. He's been raised 5 pounds for that win last time, but there looks to be more improvement to come from him. The good ground will suit, and as mentioned already, the step up in trip will be right up his street. He stayed on exceptionally well at Windsor, eventually getting up to win by a neck, so the extra stamina test will suit in my opinion. Tomorrow he looks to be coming up against 2 progressive fillys in Rock My World and Kitty Wells, but they both haven't run in over 3 months so race fitness has to be taken on trust. Warlu Way is assured to be race fit having only run 17 days ago, and this lightly raced colt looks to have a very good chance of following up here. The Dunlop stable are also in form, which is a bonus. Overall, I really feel Warlu Way is well capable of seeing out this longer trip and winning off this 5 pound higher mark. The 7/1 on offer looks generous, as I feel he should be 5/1 at the most.

So close...

Epsom Salts (right) is my only bet on Wednesday

...but yet so far. Idarah ran an absolute cracker to come 2nd. He drifted out to 14/1 before the off, and was prominant throughout. When pressed for the lead he responded well, but unfortunately got headed close home to go down by a head. Another profitable day, but it could have been so much better. +3.75 points for the day.

I haven't had a bet in the last 2 days as the standard of racing has been poor to say the least, but I've got 1 fancy for tomorrow's card at Goodwood which looks to have a great chance in my opinion.

Goodwood 3.45 - Epsom Salts - 2pts win @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler)
A stayers handicap over 2 miles isn't usually my cup of tea, but Epsom Salts looks to have a very good chance tomorrow. He ran a cracker in this race last year, coming 2nd, only beaten 3/4 of a length. He didn't get the clearest of runs that day when making his challenge, and the result could have been much different if he got a clearer passage. That good run came off a mark of 76, so tomorrow's mark of 70 looks to be a nice one for him. Epsom Salts ran a stinker last time out, and I feel that's why his price is as high as it is at the moment. He was heavily eased that day, shaping as if something may have been amiss. He's been off the track just over a month now so any problem that he may have had will surely have been sorted by now. Epsom Salts has never won over this trip, but last years performance in this race shows he's more than capable of getting the trip. The ground will suit, and running off such an attractive mark is a major plus. His run last time out was clearly not his true running, and if he's ready to go tomorrow then 13/2 is a massive price.

Just like buses...

Idarah (left) runs at Killarney tomorrow, my only bet of the day

...you wait so long for a good day to come along, and then two come along one after the other. Thursday was a good day for me, and today turned out to be a great success as well.

Drunken Sailor was completely unfaniced in the betting, having drifted out to 4/1 before the off, but he travelled like a dream throughout and quickened away impressively to score by 7 lengths. In truth, it could have been a lot more if required, as Fallon still had a lot of horse under him in the closing stages.

Trovare ran a good race to finish 3rd, having gone off at 8/1. He sat just off the pace throughout and when asked for effort about 2 furlongs out, he responded well. He eventually grabbed 3rd approaching the line. I was happy enough with his run, and there's still more improvement to come from him in my opinion.

Those two results mean a profit of 9.5 points for the day. The overall record now reads as follows:

Number of bets: 33

Winners: 5

Placed: 4

Staked: 71 points

Returned: 92.9 points

Profit/Loss: +21.9 points

It's great to be back in profit after a horrific few days recently. Hopefully I can continue the money making in the days to come.

I've only got one horse picked out for tomorrow's racing, and it comes at Killarney's National Hunt meeting.

Killarney 3.25 - Idarah - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports)
An 18 runner Grade B handicap hurdle over 2m1f, where the Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh combination saddle the favourite in the shape of the unexposed Pozyc. Pozyc has only had 3 runs so far in his hurdling, and has impressed so far, finishing a close up 5th last time out where he didn't get the run of the race. While he is an unexposed sort, I feel Idarah is definitely the value bet in this race. Idarah is a consistent sort, having either won or placed on 33% (8/24) of it's races over jumps. He won last time out, over the same trip as tomorrow's race, at Fairyhouse 19 days ago. Here's where I really become interested in Idarah. He won that Grade A handicap chase off a mark of 129, beating some very decent sorts in the process. Idarah now reverts back to hurdles tomorrow, and he gets in here off his lower hurdle mark of 117. If he's in the same sort of form as he was at Fairyhouse last time out, then he looks sure to run a very good race. The trip will suit, as will the ground as he has form on all types of ground conditions, and with the lower hurdles mark in his favour, I'm expecting a huge run from Idarah tomorrow.

Thursday review and Saturday selections

Drunken Sailor, who runs in the 2.00 at Newbury on Saturday

Thursday turned out to be a fantastic day for me, with St. Moritz winning and Judge n' Jury placing having been backed at 20/1. Those 2 results meant a profit of 12 points for the day.

Judge n' Jury ran a cracker to finish 4th, having been sent off at 14/1. It was up with the pace from the off, and I feared it was going to fade away in the final furlong or so but it plugged on gamely. I was very happy with its run.

St. Moritz has to be one of the gamest horses in training at the moment. Winning a decent handicap off such a high mark is impressive in anyone's books, and he showed a fantastic attitude to hold off all challengers after leading from about a furlong for home. 

Unfortunately, the whole Blogger system was down for ages last night/today, so I couldn't get today's selections online before the start of racing today. This brings me on to tomorrow's racing, where as always on a Saturday, there's a huge variety of racing to get my teeth into.

Newbury 2.00 - Drunken Sailor - 2pts win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Drunken Sailor is one of my favourite horses in my short time following horse racing, having won me a nice few quid over the years. He was once trained nearby by Paul Flynn, and he was sold for a nice sum late in 2009. He's now trained by Luca Cumani, and has developed into a fantastic long distance runner. He ran in some decent races at Meydan during the winter months, always giving a good account of himself. The trip tomorrow won't be a problem, having won over a furlong further before. The ground will also be fine, as he handles all types of going. Kieran Fallon takes the ride tomorrow, and he has developed a fine relationship with this horse since it joined Cumani's yard. In total throughout his career, Drunken Sailor has raced 36 times, winning 9 times and coming second 9 times, which shows how consistent this animal is. With race fitness assured from it's winter excursions, conditions to suit and Fallon on board, I'm expecting another bold show from Drunken Sailor.

Newmarket 2.50 - Trovare - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)
Trovare is a previous selection of mine, having finished a decent 4th of 13 on his comeback run at Epsom. That day, Trovare was up with the pace but seemed to run out of steam fairly rapidly coming to the business end of the race, probably due to a lack of race fitness. That run will have brought him on a lot though and he should be fit and ready for a good crack at this race tomorrow. Trovare has 3 wins in his lightly raced career, with 2 of them coming at Newmarket, so the track holds no fears for him. He's yet to win over this 14 furlong trip but he has won over 13 furlongs, so this extra furlong shouldn't be a problem. Jimmy Quinn gets the leg up tomorrow, and while he has never ridden Trovare before, I'm sure he'll be well aware of what is required to get his head in front. Trovare is an extremely progressive animal, who is still unexposed and I expect a good run from him tomorrow. I would have a bigger e/w bet but it's a very competitive field where a case could be made for quite a few runners.

If you throw enough darts...

...then you'll eventually hit the bullseye. That's my theory anyway with regards my poor picks of late. Both of Wednesday's selections ran extremely poor races, which is extremely disheartening to say the least. One must battle on though, and that's what I plan to do with some quality racing at York tomorrow!

York 1.30 - Judge 'n Jury - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)
Judge 'n Jury is on quite a long losing run, dating back to July 2009, but he still retains some of his old ability and is an extremely well handicapped horse. He showed he still retains ability with a decent 8th in last season's Abbaye at Longchamp. He returned from a winter break 12 days ago at Goodwood where he ran poorly, but he has excuses for that run, including the saddle slipping. He has never won after such a long break off the track anyway, so that run doesn't concern me that much. Race fitness should be assured after that however. His handicap mark has been slipping since that last win, meaning he's running off a mark of 91 tomorrow. He has previously won off a mark of 105 before, which shows what a high class animal he was in the past. All 8 of his wins have come over tomorrow's 5 furlong trip, and the good ground should suit. Judge 'n Jury ran in this race last year, finishing 5th off a mark of 99, which shows the track holds no fears for him. The 20/1 looks like an attractive price to me, and is defintely over priced in my opinion.

York 3.00 - St. Moritz - 1pt win 8/1 (William Hill)
A tough race to pick a winner, but I'm going to have a small punt on the Dandy Nicholls trained St. Moritz. He's been running in higher class races than this so far this season, winning a stakes and listed race. He ran a creditable race last time out to finish 2nd in another listed race to an improving sort in Side Glance. He's back in handicap company tomorrow, and faces a tough task off a mark of 104. His previous winning handicap mark is 96, but I feel he's an improved animal this season so the mark of 104 might not be beyond him. Nicholls' son Adrian takes the ride, having rode him in all 3 runs so far this season, so he's well aware of the horses' ability. The conditions will suit, and the draw is extremely important if past results in this race are anything to go by. Low numbers are important, and St. Moritz has been drawn in stall 8. It's not a bad draw, as anything drawn in double figures is facing a very tough task. He's a tough, genuine sort who should gallop all the way to the line, and I feel he may have a bit more class than the opposition tomorrow. Wannabe King is another who I would fancy to run a big race, but his draw in stall 17 has put me off having a bet.

A break never does any harm...

...well hopefully not anyway. A combination of last week's poor results and the pretty rubbish standard of racing that was on the last few days meant I took a break from backing anything. York's high quality Dante meeting starts tomorrow, and there's some good looking handicaps that I am going to try to solve.

From last Saturday's bets, Brae Hill ran another cracking race to claim 4th spot. A combination of a poor draw and a lack of luck in running meant it didn't finish in the first 3, as it was coming home like a train near the finish. There's definitely a big handicap win in him to come soon in my opinion. Remember Now ran a shockingly poor race, and was beaten a long way from home. It looked like there was something amiss with the horse, as AP virtually pulled it up half a mile from home. It managed to finish the course but it was well tailed off.

Onwards and upwards, hopefully!

York 1.30 - Treble Jig - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute are looking to win this race for the 2nd year running, and they look to have a good chance of doing it with this lightly raced colt, Treble Jig. It has won 2 of it's 6 starts, including one win over tomorrow's 10 furlong trip. That win was also on good ground, which he will again face at York, so conditions should suit. Treble Jig ran no sort of race on it's seasonal reappearance, finishing 9th of 14 at Sandown, but it wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore that day. That trip over a mile probably didn't suit so the return to 10 furlongs should help it's cause. I'm hopeful that it will have come on for that run, and will show plenty of improvement. It's one of the least exposed runners in the field, and will surely strip fitter after it's previous run. The current favourite, Taqleed, is also lightly raced and open to lots of improvement, but he has to be taken on if the ground is good, and it may even be a doubt to run as it needs a bit of cut. Small e/w stakes in what looks to be a competitive field.


York 3.35 - Lovers Causeway - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)
Lovers Causeway has done most of it's racing on the All Weather, and with some success as well. He had never won on turf before until last weeks meeting at Chester, where he ran out a cosy winner of a class 4 handicap over 12 furlongs. He faces the same class of race tomorrow over the same trip, and he looks sure to run a decent race again. He has been raised 6 pounds by the handicapper for that win but I feel there's more to come from this gelding on the turf. Lovers Causeway looked to have a bit up it's sleeve last week when he won, and hopefully he shows that at York tomorrow. He's got a good draw in stall 2, which should be perfect for Joe Fanning to employ it's front running tactics once again. He looks unexposed on turf and with conditions to suit, I think it's capable of running another good race. I'll be having small e/w stakes again due to the competitive nature of the race.

I'm currently taking the road to failure...

...if the picture at the top of the page is anything to go by. One thing I did learn today is to not back a horse at Chester ever again! The place is a graveyard for gambling. If your horse isn't in a handy position from the off then it is next to impossible to win. Unfortunately, two of my three picks today were dropped out the back by Jim Crowley, and their chances were almost gone instantly when I saw this happen, in my opinion.

Pintura ran a cracker in the opening race. He raced just off the pace, a perfect place to race at Chester, and when Jamie Spencer pushed the button on him he responded well to go into the lead. Unfortunately, he was just caught about 5 yards from the line by Paul Hanagan on Kyllachy Star, which was a tough blow to take.

Maretta Blanche ran no sort of race at all, and was clearly out for the spin in my opinion. This is always a danger with horses who are coming back off a long lay off, and it wouldn't surprise me to see her run a big race next time out, with fitness now improved from today's "run".

Dynamic Drive is the horse that annoyed me most today. Jim Crowley dropped him out the back of the pack coming out of the stalls, and even though the race was over a mile and a half, that is still not a suitable tactic to employ at Chester. Crowley still had plenty of horse under him coming into the closing stages, but he was too far back to challenge the leaders, who had flown for home at that stage. He also got no luck in running though when going to make his run. More prominant tactics may have seen a better result.

My picks have been a big pile of fail in recent days, and I really need to turn things around soon. No better way to do that than have a max bet in a 23 runner handicap hurdle and an each way bet in a big field handicap over 7 furlongs at Ascot!

Ascot 3.25 - Brae Hill - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)
A 29 runner handicap over a quick 7 furlongs is very hard to solve, but I fancy Brae Hill to be the one to come out on top. Brae Hill has ran two cracking races so far this season, finishing 2nd in the Lincoln at Doncaster and 6th in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time out. He races off the same mark (98) as that day at Newbury, but the very capable claimer Lee Topliss takes a valuable 5 pounds off his back. This brings Brae Hill's mark down to 1 pound below his previous winning mark of 94. Conditions are identical to that last win as well, 7 furlongs with good to firm ground. The field is 3 times bigger tomorrow but he has shown he has no problem handling these big field handicaps in the recent past. Dr Marwan Koukash owns 5 of the field of 29 in this race tomorrow, including Brae Hill. When interviewed on television earlier today, he nominated Brae Hill as his best chance of the 5. This is another positive note to add to the ones listed above. All in all, I expect a very big run from Brae Hill.

Haydock 3.40 - Remember Now - 5pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power)
Remember Now is a lightly raced sort who I feel has much more improvement to come. It has only raced 5 times, and has gradually improved with every run, winning it's last 2 races. In it's first win, it showed a great attitude to get back up on the line having been headed on the run in, and it improved greatly last time out to win with a bit in hand. He's been raised 10 pounds for that win by the handicapper, but that shouldn't be a problem for him with more natural improvement sure to come. AP McCoy takes the ride, and it looks like he's going to Haydock just to ride Remember Now. He has 1 other ride on the card, on Al Co in the previous race, who's a quirky sort who is liable to turn up to the races in any sort of mood on any given day. It certainly wouldn't be a huge chance for a winner, so it appears to me that AP is going there for this ride. This race is a rise in class for Remember Now, but I'm sure he should be able to handle it and with conditions perfect, AP on board, improvement to come I think this is maximum bet territory. Hopefully the horse does the business now tomorrow to justify my confidence.

Two of the worst yet...

...is how I'd describe my two selections from Thursday's racing. It's disheartening to be reading the races so wrong after putting in quite a bit of studying of the form, but these things happen. I just have to keep plugging away and they'll eventually start going in for me, hopefully!

Cuan Na Grai raced prominantly for the first half of the race but it was clear from quite a long way from home that he was struggling, and he was eventually pulled up.

Sir Vincent ran a stinker, finishing well down the field. As I expected, Willie Mullins trained the winner but unfortunately I couldn't pick it out from his 6 runners.

Tomorrow's racing consists of some very nice flat handicaps, which are my preferred type of races to try and solve. I've got 3 bets for Chester's card picked out that will hopefully provide me with 3 winners.

Chester 1.45 - Pintura - 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365)
David Simcock's charge Pintura looks to have a great chance of landing the spoils in this Class 2 Handicap over 7.5 furlongs. Pintura ran an absolute cracker in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time out, coming second, only failing to win by a neck. A reproduction of that run should be good enough to take this race tomorrow. There was a suspicion that Pintura only acted on ground with a bit of cut in it, but that performance at Newbury proved he could handle a quicker surface. He's raised 3 pounds for that run, but that doesn't seem too excessive in my opinion and he should be able to go very close tomorrow. The draw is all important at Chester, and he's been drawn in box 5, which is a decent draw to get a good early position from. Without wanting to rule out any horses drawn in a high number, the lower numbers really are very important over these short trips at Chester. With the draw in his favour, the trip and conditions in his favour, and his run last time out being so impressive, I'm confident Jamie Spencer can get a good tune out of him and give me a good run for my money.

Chester 4.40 - Moretta Blanche - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)
Moretta Blanche has been off the track for almost 300 days, but she's a very lightly raced animal having only raced 3 times in her life, and she will hopefully show more improvement tomorrow. She hasn't ran since finishing 6th of 10 in a Class 3 Handicap at Newmarket last July, and she takes a drop in class tomorrow. She also returns to a more suitable trip of 7 furlongs, the same trip she won his first 2 races. Her 3rd run came over an inadequate 6 furlongs, so returning to 7 furlongs looks like a positive move. Moretta Blanche will be coming out of box 7 tomorrow, which is suitable for my selection to get into a good position from the off. She's still completely unexposed and looks the sort to improve over the winter. My only concern is a lack of race fitness but I'm going to take the chance that the trainer has her well prepared for a good tilt at tomorrow's race.

Chester 5.10 - Dynamic Drive - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)
Dynamic Drive has a very good chance of winning this Class 4 Handicap over 1m4f. He's still a lightly raced 4 year old, who rounded off last season with 2 good handicap wins at Goodwood and Bath. He ran an adequate race on his comeback off a 185 day break over the winter, finishing 6 of 13 in a hot looking handicap at Epsom. He takes a drop in class tomorrow, as well as being dropped 2 pounds by the handicapper, which looks to have given him a fantastic chance tomorrow. Stall 7 is where Dynamic Drive will come from tomorrow, which is a good draw to get. The trip and ground won't be a problem, and with more natural improvement sure to come, as well as improvement in his fitness levels from his first run of the season, I expect a big performance from Dynamic Drive tomorrow. Small each way stakes again because it's quite a competitive race, with plenty of chances in it.

A Sickening Fall...

...is what Apt Approach took at the last fence today. He drifted out in the betting to 12/1, which would have been an even tastier win than I had originally thought it would be. Having lead from the drop of the flag, and having jumped supremely throughout, he took a crashing fall at the final fence, which left Ruby Walsh's mount Scotsirish to take the race. In truth, Ruby may have went on to win regardless, as his horse came with a lovely run coming to the last. I would still have liked to see if Apt Approach could have held on.

My 2 selections at Chester both ran poor races. La Vecchia Scuola ran a stinker, and was the 2nd last finisher. Moorhouse Lad bounced out of stall one and lead until being pushed along over 1 furlong out, before weakening poorly. I was particularly disappointed with his run as I expected a much better effort from it.

A very poor day, but it could have been so different if it wasn't for Apt Approach's late blunder.

Number of bets: 20

Winners: 3

Placed: 1

Staked: 42 points

Returned: 59.9 points

Profit/Loss: +17.9 points

Onwards and upwards, and I've got 2 nice selections for tomorrow's racing at Punchestown which will hopefully recoup some of the recent losses. There's some good racing at Chester again, but there's nothing that is particularly standing out to me.

Punchestown 4.15 - Cuan Na Grai - 1.5pts e/w @ 18/1 (Ladbrokes)
Cuan Na Grai (pictured above) looks to have a very good chance of landing the spoils in this wide open handicap chase. He won at the course before, at last year's festival, beating Themoonandsixpence in very impressive fashion. That win came after a very poor run at Fairyhouse 19 days beforehand, and ironically he ran a shocker at Fairyhouse 9 days ago so hopefully he follows the same pattern as last year. This race comes 10 days sooner than last years race, but Cuan Na Grai has been relatively lightly raced in recent seasons so I'm expecting him to still have the legs to compete. He'll appreciate the underfoot conditions tomorrow, and the trip won't be a problem. He has a decent young claimer on board in Michael Doran who'll take off a valuable 7 pounds, bringing Cuan Na Grai's racing weight down to 11 stone. I'm very confident he can produce another good run tomorrow, and I'm having medium stakes each way at what looks a massive price. Paddy Power currently price him up as a 12/1 shot, and I personally think that's a more realistic price for him.


Punchestown 6.05 - Sir Vincent - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Boylesports)
A 25 runner handicap over 3 miles isn't exactly an easy puzzle to solve, but I fancy the Mullins/Walsh combination to take the spoils here. Mullins has 6 of the 25 runners in the field, so he'll be hopeful of taking the prize with one of those 6, but the fact Walsh has chosen Sir Vincent is a bonus in my eyes. He ran over 3 miles for the first time at Fairyhouse 22 days ago, finishing 2nd to Baracas. He was held up that day and didn't get the clearest of passages through to finish a fast closing 2nd. With more luck in running tomorrow and slightly more positive tactics, I feel he can take the prize. Conditions won't be a problem, and with Willie Mullins in flying form, I'm hopeful of him having another winner in this race.

Wednesday May 4th selections

My only bet on Tuesday, Gimli's Rock, never got into contention unfortunately in the big field handicap at Punchestown. His jumping throughout the race was poor and he finished well down the field.

Tomorrow's racing is again top quality. As well as top National Hunt action at Punchestown, Chester hosts a fantastic flat racing card, including the marathon Chester Cup Handicap (2.55) over 2m2f.



Chester 2.55 - La Vecchia Scuola - 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
This marathon requires stamina in abundance, and I feel this mare has it in her to run a very good race. La Vecchia Scuola has won over 2 furlongs further than tomorrow's trip when running over hurdles, so the trip definitely shouldn't be a problem. She ran in this race last year but never got involved, but that race was her first run back after a very long lay off so fitness excuses can be accepted for that run. She shouldn't have any such fitness concerns tomorrow as she had a spin over hurdles at Cheltenham, but never really got involved and wasn't given a hard time of it by jockey Graham Lee. That run will hopefully have put her in good shape for tomorrow's race, and I'm prepared to have a small each way bet on her in what is a very competitive race.

Chester 3.30 - Moorhouse Lad - 4pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)
This ultra competitive class 2 handicap over 5 furlongs is a tough one to solve, but I'm very sweet on the chances of Moorhouse Lad (pictured above). The draw is extremely important over 5 furlongs at Chester, with a low number draw being key. Moorhouse Lad has drawn the plum stall in number 1, which is perfect for this race. His form in the book is outstanding, having won 2 Group 3 races in the past, as well as similar standard handicaps to the one he is contesting here tomorrow. He has won 7 races in his career, all coming at tomorrow's 5 furlong trip. He has been contesting some higher class races in recent times, including a respectable effort in a Group 1 at the backend of last season. His mark is at it's lowest for quite some time tomorrow, which is also another positive. He made a low key comeback 19 days ago from a 181 day break off the track, but he's sure to strip much fitter for tomorrow. Unfortunately I missed some nice prices on him but the 8/1 is still value in my opinion and I will be surprised if he doesn't go off shorter.

Punchestown 6.30 - Apt Approach - 1pt win @ 8/1 (Boylesports)
This is a very hard handicap to solve, and cases can be made for many, but I've gone for the Willie Mullins trained Apt Approach. His chasing career has got off to an impressive start, only finishing out of the first 2 on 1 occasion in 5 attempts. He finished a 5 length 2nd to Roberto Goldback in a Grade 2 chase at Leopardstown last January, and Roberto Goldback is now going on to contest the Grade 1 Guiness Gold Cup earlier on in the card at Punchestown tomorrow, which shows how decent that performance looks now from Apt Approach. Unfortunately his booked jockey Paul Townend looks to have suffered a bad injury during today's racing and will miss the ride, but I'm sure Willie Mullins will make sure someone equally capable will get booked to replace him. Apt Approach has had a break off the track, but fitness should not be lacking tomorrow as Mullins usually has his horses spot on for the Punchestown festival. The good ground is a slight worry, but the staff at Punchestown seem to be really trying to water the ground heavily so that will hopefully play into my selections hands. I'm only placing small stakes as it's such a competitive race, but I'm sure there's definitely more improvement to come from this animal over fences.

Ted Durcan isn't so bad afterall...

After questioning Mr. Durcan as a jockey in one of my first posts, he's gone on to provide me with 2 of the 3 winners so far, following Wannabe King's 16/1 win, he won today on Warlu Way, advised last night at 12/1. It was a welcome boost to the betting bank that had taken a few bad hits during the last few days.

Getcarter was my most fancied runner of the day, but that obviously meant he was going to be my worst performer on the day. He missed the kick coming out of the stalls, and never really got into the race. When he did try and produce a run, he got knocked around between horses and that totally ended any slim chance he may have had.

Prince Apollo ran a decent race to finish 3rd. He pulled hard early on which may have affected how much he had left in the tank when it came to the business end of the race.

Warlu Way was the undoubted success story of the day for myself. He was well backed before the off and travelled well throughout. He looked to have an awkward head carriage though and about 2 furlongs from home the best I thought I was going to get was the place money. However, a nice gap opened for Ted Durcan to attack and he duly obliged, and while he only won by a neck in the end, I feel he may have won with a little bit up it's sleeve and there could be another win or two to come, especially with it being so lightly raced and open to improvement.

+10.4 points for the day, which is always nice to see!

Number of bets: 16

Winners: 3

Placed: 1

Staked: 32 points

Returned: 59.9 points

Profit/Loss: +27.9 points

On to tomorrow's racing, and the eagerly anticipated Punchestown festival kicks off, with a decent card in store with plenty of high class animals on show. I've picked out one horse that looks overpriced in my opinion, and I'm expecting a big run from it tomorrow afternoon.

Punchestown 16.55 - Gimli's Rock - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

Some may think it's a bit ridiculous to try and solve a 21 runner handicap hurdle, but I like to accept such a challenge! 2 lightly raced sorts, Wee Giant and Nearest The Pin are currently joint market leaders at 4/1, but I fancy Jessie Harrington's Gimli's Rock to run a big race and the 14/1 on offer is a very nice price. Gimli's Rock has won over this course and distance before, one of only 3 horses in the field to have done so. The ground conditions won't be a problem either so overall, conditions are perfect. He's got decent form in the book, having won a Grade 2 hurdle at Down Royal last November, which shows how much class he has. He was in flying form in 2010, recording 4 victories over jumps and one on the flat. I'm expecting more improvement to come this season as well. He ran behind Voler La Vadette just 8 days ago, and never really landed a blow. I'm expecting him to have come on from that race and he should be in tip top condition to run a big race tomorrow. It's my only bet of the day and I'm having a relatively big e/w punt, in the expectation of a big run.

Monday May 2nd selections

I've had a break for a few days, mainly due to hangovers and other things to do. Although I've seen very little racing over the weekend, I did manage to see Frankel romp home on Saturday at Newmarket. What a performance, words can't describe how impressive it was.

On to tomorrow, and there's some decent racing going on both sides of the Irish Sea. I've picked out 3 horses that I fancy to run good races, and hopefully my studying of the form will pay dividends!

Windsor 2.55 - Getcarter - 3pts win @ 5/1 (Bet365)
Getcarter returned after a 4 month lay off 30 days ago to run an encouraging run over an inadequate trip of 8 furlongs at Kempton. That should see him fit and ready for this race tomorrow. He's back down to a much more suitable trip of 6 furlongs, and he also has course form having won over course and distance last year. That win came off a mark of 80, so tomorrow's mark of 75 looks like an attractive proposition. The good to firm ground is perfect for him, and all is in place for a big performance tomorrow. Medium win stakes placed in expectation of a big run.

Beverley 3.20 - Prince Apollo - 1pt win @ 4/1 (William Hill)
Prince Apollo arrives here tomorrow off the back of a good win last time out at Brighton, where he registered a 2 length win. He's up 6 pounds for that win, and up in class, but I feel there's more to come from him tomorrow. The ground is perfect for him, as is the trip, and if he gets a good early gallop then I feel he's going to be hard to beat. Silvery Moon, who's handicapping for the first time, is a big danger in my opinion so I'm just having small win stakes on Prince Apollo, in the hope and expectation that he improves further from his last run.

Windsor 3.25 - Warlu Way - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Warlu Way rounded off last season with a good win at Ffos Las, just getting up on the line to win by a nose. He then returned this season off a 5 pound higher mark after a lengthy break to run an average race at Newbury, finishing 10th of 15 runners. That race was just over 2 weeks ago and I'm expecting that Warlu Way will have dusted off any cobwebs that may have been there in preparation for a big run tomorrow. The trip and ground aren't a problem, and the high draw in stall 9 should also suit. Warlu Way is still very unexposed, having only ran 6 races in his career thus far, so I feel there's still plenty of improvement to come from this animal.

That's enough for me. Best of luck with any gambling you may do tomorrow!