I'm back, and hopefully with a bang!

Hello folks, I hope you have all had a successful summer from a punting point of view. I've been back from America around a month now, and while I made a few quid before I left while writing this blog, it wasn't enough to keep me out there for the 3 months I had originally planned on going for. However, the 2 months I did spend out there were without doubt the best 2 months of my life, living in San Diego and visiting places like Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Mexico along the way. Vegas was the most surreal place I've ever been, and I cannot wait to return there in a few years. Unfortunately, I was home in Ireland about 10 days after I left Vegas to go back to San Diego, mainly due to the casinos cleaning me out of my final few dollars!

To round up my stats from last May, I unfortunately finished off with 2 losing bets. Here are the final stats:

Number of bets: 46

Winners: 6

Placed: 5

Staked: 101 points

Returned: 133.65 points

Profit/Loss: +32.65 points

 

I'm fairly happy with those stats to be honest, as to be in profit from gambling at all is always a positive. However, I feel I have to improve on the amount of winners I get, as only having 6 winners from 46 bets doesn't read very well. I was quite fortunate that I hit some very tasty priced winners along the way which certainly help boost my profits!

 

Onto tomorrow's racing, where there's a very good flat card at Haydock, which is complimented well by a few other decent cards from around the UK as well as some summer jumping in Kilbeggan. Fingers crossed I'll be able to start afresh with a few winners!

 

Haydock 1.40 - Walvis Bay - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Walvis Bay looks well capable of taking this class 4 handicap which opens the card at Haydock. He hasn't shown a whole lot in his previous 3 starts so far this season, but there is certainly ability there as he showed in the past. He came back from a small break in the middle of August to finish 7th of 11 at Thirsk in a similar race to the one he'll be contesting at Haydock. I don't think he was fully wound up for that race, and will surely strip fitter for tomorrow. He has also been eased 3 pounds by the handicapper, which will only help his cause. Walvis Bay has won off a mark of 78 just over a year ago, so tomorrow's mark of 76 would certainly suggest he's well handicapped. The good ground and 5 furlong trip will also suit. That win off 78 landed a bit of a gamble that day, and I've noticed that there's been a few nibbles for Walvis Bay already for tomorrow's race, which could hint that connections might fancy another punt if they feel that the horse is ready to strike. Tom Queally is booked to ride, which can only be a positive in my opinion as he's a highly talented jockey. My only concern is that Walvis Bay may not get his own way in front as he likes, because there's quite a few in the field who like to make the running. Because of this, I'm only having a small e/w bet.

 

Haydock 3.10 - La Zamora - 2pts win @ 7/1 (Bet365)

A relatively open looking handicap over 6 furlongs, and I fancy the 5 year old mare La Zamora to take the prize money home for her connections. Going through La Zamora's previous form, it gives me the impression that she has definitely got the ability to be winning a race of this standard. She has previously won class 2 and class 3 handicaps in the past, so she should be well capable of winning tomorrow's class 4 handicap. She's back down to her last winning mark, which was 82 around this time last year. Her last run doesn't look that spectacular on paper, but it's better than it looks as a slow start didn't help her chances. That race was also over 7 furlongs, which isn't her ideal trip in my opinion. Tomorrow La Zamora returns to a more suitable 6 furlongs, which is also the trip she caught the eye on in her penultimate start, having been extremely slow away over course and distance, she finished very strongly only going down by a length in the end. If she reproduces that run, albeit with a faster start, then she should be bang in the shake up come the finish line. I'm slightly put off by the current favourite, Iron Range, who could be anything as they say, having only had 1 previous run on the track. That opponent is the reason I'm only having a 2 point win bet.

 

Haydock 4.10 - Silver Rime - 1pt win @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

Silver Rime has been decent heart this season, with most of his efforts being respectable without getting his head in front. However, I think tomorrow could be his day to enter the winners enclosure for the first time since July 2010. That last win was a similar standard of race to the one he faces tomorrow, and it came off a mark of 83. Tomorrow, Silver Rime runs off 85, but crucially jockey Dale Swift takes off 3 pounds, which brings Silver Rime below his highest winning mark. Having run over 6 furlongs last time out, the return to 7 furlongs will suit Silver Rime with 2 of it's 4 career wins coming over the same trip. The good ground will also be to it's liking. It's a tough looking race to solve, where I could make a case for many of the runners, so I'll only have small win stakes on Silver Rime.

Friday 27th May selections

Watch Amigo, who runs in the 4.05 race at Newmarket

My one selection on Wednesday, Judge 'N Jury, ran an ok race to finish 4th in the end. travelled well in the early stages of the race and was right up with the pace, but faded tamely enough in the closing stages. Ginger Ted, who went on to win the race, was actually one of the few horses in the race who I could have made a case for, so I was surprised to see him win.

I didn't back anything on Thursday, as I never got a chance to study the cards in enough depth to make a solid selection, but I've been studying Friday's cards for a while now and I've picked out one horse I fancy to run a big race.

Newmarket 4.05 - Watch Amigo - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)
An open looking 17 runner handicap run over 7 furlongs, and I've decided to have a small each way bet on Walter Swinburn's runner Watch Amigo. Watch Amigo is a very lightly raced 5 year old, having only had 10 career starts. He didn't finish out of the top 4 in his first 7 races of his career, but signed off last season with 2 average enough efforts in, although they were in decent races. Watch Amigo returned from a 226 day absence off the track when coming 10th of 14 at Kempton 25 days ago. That was over an inadequate 8 furlongs, so tomorrow's drop back to 7 furlongs will suit. Watch Amigo has won 3 of his 10 starts, and came 2nd twice, all of these efforts came over 7 furlongs, which shows just how inadequate that 8 furlong trip last time out was. He was entitled to need the run regardless and should strip much fitter in preparation for this race tomorrow. The Swinburn yard is absolutely flying at the moment and are banging in the winners left, right and centre, and hopefully they'll get another one here. Watch Amigo is 5 pounds higher than his previous winning mark, but he has placed in a similar standard race as tomorrow's off the same mark as tomorrow before, and with his lightly raced profile and hopefully more natural improvement to come, he should run a very good race.

Not even close...

Both of my picks on Tuesday ran very poor races, which is disheartening to say the least. Both were extremely well supported from the prices I advised them at (Swift Chap advised @10/1 and sent off 9/2, Ginger Jack advised @25/1 and sent off @14/1), which is always good to see because you know you're not the only person who fancies them to run well. It's no good if the horses don't back the support up with a decent run though! Both finished well down their respective fields, and I'll probably leave the 2 of them alone until they begin to show a bit more form.

It's probably time to update the stats, as it's been a while since I did it:

Number of bets: 44

Winners: 6

Placed: 5

Staked: 96 points

Returned: 133.65 points

Profit/Loss: +37.65 points

I'm happy enough with how those stats look, as any profit is always good to see. My strike rate of bets placed to winners/placed horses is rather disappointing though, and is something I hope to improve on.

Wednesday has a few decent looking races on, and I feel I've got a winner picked out at Ayr.

Ayr 3.15 - Judge 'N Jury - 3pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Judge 'N Jury is a previous selection of mine on this blog, when he ran a cracking race to come 4th at York 13 days ago (Advised @ 20/1, sent off @14/1). He now takes a drop in class, and was also dropped 1 pound by the handicapper, so a similar performance should have him right in the thick of things come the finishing line tomorrow. He reopposes Paul Hanagan's mount Duchess Dora again tomorrow, who is currently 7/2 joint favourite with my selection, and who finished 6th last time out behind my seletion. Judge 'N Jury has 8 career wins, all coming over tomorrow's 5 furlong trip. The ground conditions for the race tomorrow are currently described as Soft, and Judge 'N Jury is one of only 3 horses in the field to have won on soft ground before. He is running off a mark of 90 tomorrow, which is 8 pounds below his previous winning mark and 15 pounds below it's all time high winning mark. He's on quite a long losing run, dating back to July 2009, but the run last time out certainly shows that Judge 'N Jury still has the ability to win races. The drop in class for this race tomorrow definitely leaves him with a great chance to get his head in front again. Duchess Dora is currently the joint favourite with my selection, but they meet each other on similar terms to last time and Duchess Dora's lack of form on soft ground must be seen as a concern. I'm having medium win stakes on Judge 'N Jury in expectation of a big run.

Tuesday 24th May selections

Unfortunately, my 2 longshots at The Curragh on Sunday didn't run very well.

See You Smile was prominant in the early stages but faded poorly to finish down the field.


Vivacious Vivienne had a tough job on from such a wide draw, but she tracked across well to run at the back of the pack early on. I thought the jockey could have done more throughout the race to get her in a more prominant position, because when she did get into the home straight she ran on well for 7th. With more positive tactics early on in the race I feel it could have run into a place.

-4 points for the day.

I didn't back anything on Monday as the quality of racing wasn't great, but I've got twos bet picked out for tomorrow's cards at Chepstow and Ripon which will hopefully go well at tasty odds.


Chepstow 3.20 - Swift Chap - 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet365)
Swift Chap hasn't won a race since October 2009, but that losing run has to come to an end eventually and I feel tomorrow is that day. He won that race well off a mark of 76, and tomorrow he runs off an attractive mark of 67. 2 of his 4 career victories have come over tomorrow's 8 furlong trip, and he'll certainly be a fan of the good to firm ground. Swift Chap has also placed off marks of 83 and 85 in higher class races to the one he runs in tomorrow, so a case can certainly be made for him being "well in" here. He ran an average race on his return to action at Sandown 31 days ago, but he's never ran very well off a long break throughout his career so that outing wouldn't worry me too much. That race was a better race than he runs in today, and he's been dropped a further 3 pounds by the handicapper since then, so he looks to have a great chance of getting his head in front here tomorrow. Small win stakes for me as the long losing run is a concern, but he's potentially thrown in here off this mark in this standard of race.

Ripon 3.40 - Ginger Jack - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
Ginger Jack switched hands during the winter months for quite a sum, having progressed well in handicaps last season. He made his comeback 11 days ago from a lengthy winter break over an inadequate 7 furlongs trip, and he clearly needed the run to blow off the cobwebs. He returns to his favourite trip of a mile here tomorrow, having recorded all 4 career victories over this trip. He's only 2 pounds above his last winning mark, and I feel there's more progress to come from this horse. He's certainly got the ability to run a big race here judging by his form last season, and the 25/1 looks far too big. He's got a good draw in stall 2, which will help his chances of using his favoured tactics of racing prominantly throughout. The ground conditions will suit, and with a run under his belt, he'll surely strip fitter for this race tomorrow. Small e/w stakes in what looks a competitive heat.

I've had worse days...

...is a serious understatement. Having been relatively quiet during the week on the gambling front, I decided to have some tasty bets on Saturday as the quality of racing was decent.

Parisian Pyramid ran a good race, but it unfortunately wasn't good enough on the day as he eventually finished 3rd. He led entering the final furlong and looked like he had enough in him to hold on but Crown Choice produced a lovely late run under Alan Kirby to win going away in the end.

Spanish Duke unfortunately didn't handle the step up in class today. He travelled off the pace in the early stages and looked to be going well turning into the straight, but he didn't seem to find much for pressure and eventually weakened to finish last.

Masamah was undoubtadly the success story of the day for me. Having been backed last night at 12/1, he was sent off at 8/1 having been well punted before the off. Masamah bounced out of the stalls in front, and while he was joined briefly in the early stages of the race, he barely saw a rival throughout the whole race and hung on well from a fast finishing Doctor Parkes to win by half a length.

That win for Masamah meant a profit of 25 points for the day, which is impressive in anyone's books!

Unfortunately there's mainly jumps racing on tomorrow, with the only flat action coming at The Curragh in Co. Kildare. I don't usually like punting on the Irish racing but I've found 2 bets for tomorrow that look like good value to me.


The Curragh 2.10 - See You Smile - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports)
See You Smile is still quite a lightly raced filly, having only had 11 starts. Her one and only career win came on her seasonal debut last season after 218 days off the track. Tomorrow she makes her seasonal debut for 2011 after 212 days off the track, so hopefully she can produce a similar result to that one this time last year. That run was over 6 furlongs at Navan, the same trip she faces here tomorrow. The ground conditions at the moment say that it's Good to Firm at The Curragh at the moment. If this is the case then it'll be perfect for See You Smile, as she loves the good ground. However there's been plenty of rain on Saturday so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ground description change between now and race time tomorrow. See You Smile has never run on soft ground, so it's an unknown as to how she would handle it. Hopefully we'll have a dry morning tomorrow and the ground dries out from today's rain. See You Smile won that race mentioned above off a mark of 68, and while her follow up run was rather decent, she never really produced a good performance after that for the whole season. She was running off a mark of 79 at one stage, and now that it's back down to 70, it certainly appeals to me. Add in the fact that promising claimer Darren Egan takes off a further 7 pounds then See You Smile certainly looks to me running off a decent mark. Her draw in stall 10 looks ok, considering the last 2 winners of this race came from stalls 12 and 8 respectively, so stall 10 looks to be suitable for a prominant showing. I've decided to take Boylesports' 33/1 instead of Paddy Power's 25/1, despite the fact PP is paying 5 places compared to Boyles' 4 places. Fingers crossed for a decent run for my money.

The Curragh 3.40 - Vivacious Vivienne - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
I've decided to have a punt on the winner of this race last year, Vivacious Vivienne. Vivacious Vivienne was highly progressive last year, starting her campaign off a mark of 77, and having won her final start of the year at Leopardstown, she began this season off a mark of 93. Further progress this season in Listed and Group company means she's running off a mark of 97 tomorrow, which is 15 pounds higher than the mark she won this race off last year. However, her win at Leopardstown at the back end of last season came off 88, and with Conor Hoban's 7 pound claim tomorrow, she virtually gets in here off a mark of 90, which is well within her ability in my opinion. Her draw tomorrow is not ideal, in box 20, but she won this last year from the widest draw of them all so she's capable of winning from there. Vivacious Vivienne has had 2 runs so far this year, in better quality races than this. Both have been over inadequate trips, so the return to this 1m4f trip tomorrow will definitely suit. The drop in class here tomorrow is also a positive for her chances. She has bits of form on all sorts of ground, so she should handle the conditions whether there's rain or not. Vivacious Vivienne is an extremely consistent sort, either winning or placing in 39% of her career starts (18 starts, 5 wins, 2 places), and I'm confident she can run another big race here tomorrow.

Saturday May 21st selections

Not a bad run from Night Affair on Friday, eventually finishing 6th of the 7, but only around 2 lengths back from the winner, Collect Art. Unfortunately the favourite was too good on the day though.

Onto Saturday's racing, where there's some fantastic racing on both sides of the Irish Sea. I've got 3 selections picked out which will hopefully provide me with a few winners.

Goodwood 2.15 - Parisian Pyramid - 3pts win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
A 6 furlong handicap where 13 are scheduled to go to post, and I fancy last year's winner Parisian Pyramid to give it a very good shot at winning again. Parisian Pyramid ran a fairly average race on his seasonal comeback, where he probably needed the run. However, it's his most recent run that has caught my eye. He has done all of his winning over 6 furlongs, but last time out at Ascot he was running over an inadequate 7 furlongs. He raced prominantly for most of the race but weakened entering the final furlong. He now drops back to a more suitable 6 furlong trip, and he gets another pound off the handicapper for that run last time out. There were definite signs of a return to top form at Ascot, and fingers crossed he will hit top form again tomorrow. He won this race last year off a mark of 88, and he runs here tomorrow off 93. That mark is definitely within his reach, having placed in some top quality handicaps last season off 99, 98 and 96. Conditions are going to suit tomorrow, he enjoys his trips to Goodwood having won 2 out of 2 here, and he looks set to run another big race.

Goodwood 3.20 - Spanish Duke - 2pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill)
A previous selection on this blog, where Spanish Duke won his seasonal reappearance over this trip at Epsom. That day, he beat a decent field of handicappers easily. Having travelled supremely throughout, he cruised into the lead in the home straight and pulled away with a bit up his sleeve. He deservedly takes a step up in class here today, and I fully expect more natural improvement to come. Al Zir is a high class opponent, having ran in the Epsom Derby last year as well as some other high class races, but I think he may need this first run back in 7 months before we see the best of him this season. Spanish Duke is race fit after his comeback win, and with more natural improvement to come in my opinion, he looks to have a fantastic chance here tomorrow. The only negative is that Eddie Ahern doesn't take the ride, as he has been on board for all 5 of Spanish Duke's career victories. However, Ted Durcan has been a bit of a lucky charm for this blog so far with some nice priced winners so hopefully he can do me a favour again tomorrow. Conditions will suit, and it's just a matter of whether Spanish Duke can handle the step up in grade or not, and I'm confident that he can.

York 3.40 - Masamah - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)
A high class field consisting of 20 runners for this 5 furlong sprint handicap, where I'm very sweet on the chances of the Kevin Ryan trained Masamah. My selection ran an absolute cracker on his seasonal reappearance, finishing 3rd behind Doctor Parkes at Chester over 5 furlongs. Masamah had a very wide draw that day, which makes that result even more impressive considering how essential a low draw is at Chester. Doctor Parkes reopposes here today, where Masamah has a 4 pound pull at the weights for that previous run. Masamah runs here off the same mark he ran at Chester, whereas Doctor Parkes has been raised 4 pounds for his effort. Doctor Parkes is sure to run another good race, but I fancy Masamah to be able to reverse the result from the last time. Masamah will come on a lot for that run, with extra race fitness now assured. 4 of Masamah's 5 career wins have come over 5 furlongs, including one over course and distance. Masamah has won 5 of his 16 career starts, and placed on another 2 runs, so he's reliable when it comes to getting in the money. I'm having a decent e/w bet on him tomorrow in expectation of a big run from him.


I actually fancy quite a few horses at Chester tomorrow as well, but I've promised myself I wouldn't back anything at Chester ever again after the recent festival there. Brae Hill, Our Jonathan and Dazzling Light are all of interest to me, but I won't be going near them due to the track in question.

Not the greatest of days...

...but I was happy enough with my selections none the less.

Hacienda travelled well in the early stages of the race, travelling just off the pace. He looked to be going as well as anything about 3 furlongs out and I was beginning to get a bit excited but his challenge fizzled out weakly and he ended up finishing 8th. Not the worst run in the world, but I'll be leaving him alone for a while I think.

Warlu Way was extremely unlucky in running. He travelled like an absolute dream, but got boxed in behind a wall of horses about 2 furlongs out and couldn't find a gap to make his challege. Once he did get in the clear in the final furlong he ran on very well to claim 5th, but the winners were way too far ahead at that stage to challenge strongly. I'll be looking out for his next run with interest.

Onto tomorrow's selection, where I've one horse picked out that I think will run well.

Bath 3.40 - Night Affair - 1pt win @ 12/1 (William Hill)
Night Affair looks primed to run a big race here tomorrow in this 7 runner handicap over 5 and a half furlongs. She loves the track, having recorded 2 of her 3 career wins here. The first of those wins was almost exactly a year ago, over the same course and distance as tomorrow's race. She also encounters the same ground conditions as that race. Night Affair's best results have mainly come in small fields, so tomorrow's 7 runner race will suit her. Her comeback run this season wouldn't inspire confidence, but that race's form is working out very well with 4 subsequent winners coming out of it in the last 14 days. Fitness will be assured for Night Affair tomorrow after that run. Her mark has dropped to 75, the same mark she won off on her last visit to Bath. I would have a bigger bet on her except Collect Art looks to have a huge chance at the weights as well, considering she's officially 4 pounds well in. However, I'm going to have a small punt on what I think is the value bet in the race, Night Affair.