Wednesday, 11 May 2011

If you throw enough darts...

...then you'll eventually hit the bullseye. That's my theory anyway with regards my poor picks of late. Both of Wednesday's selections ran extremely poor races, which is extremely disheartening to say the least. One must battle on though, and that's what I plan to do with some quality racing at York tomorrow!

York 1.30 - Judge 'n Jury - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)
Judge 'n Jury is on quite a long losing run, dating back to July 2009, but he still retains some of his old ability and is an extremely well handicapped horse. He showed he still retains ability with a decent 8th in last season's Abbaye at Longchamp. He returned from a winter break 12 days ago at Goodwood where he ran poorly, but he has excuses for that run, including the saddle slipping. He has never won after such a long break off the track anyway, so that run doesn't concern me that much. Race fitness should be assured after that however. His handicap mark has been slipping since that last win, meaning he's running off a mark of 91 tomorrow. He has previously won off a mark of 105 before, which shows what a high class animal he was in the past. All 8 of his wins have come over tomorrow's 5 furlong trip, and the good ground should suit. Judge 'n Jury ran in this race last year, finishing 5th off a mark of 99, which shows the track holds no fears for him. The 20/1 looks like an attractive price to me, and is defintely over priced in my opinion.

York 3.00 - St. Moritz - 1pt win 8/1 (William Hill)
A tough race to pick a winner, but I'm going to have a small punt on the Dandy Nicholls trained St. Moritz. He's been running in higher class races than this so far this season, winning a stakes and listed race. He ran a creditable race last time out to finish 2nd in another listed race to an improving sort in Side Glance. He's back in handicap company tomorrow, and faces a tough task off a mark of 104. His previous winning handicap mark is 96, but I feel he's an improved animal this season so the mark of 104 might not be beyond him. Nicholls' son Adrian takes the ride, having rode him in all 3 runs so far this season, so he's well aware of the horses' ability. The conditions will suit, and the draw is extremely important if past results in this race are anything to go by. Low numbers are important, and St. Moritz has been drawn in stall 8. It's not a bad draw, as anything drawn in double figures is facing a very tough task. He's a tough, genuine sort who should gallop all the way to the line, and I feel he may have a bit more class than the opposition tomorrow. Wannabe King is another who I would fancy to run a big race, but his draw in stall 17 has put me off having a bet.

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