
Saturday, 23 April 2011
I Had A Dream....
...And his name was Seamie's Dream. Backed at 8/1 with a hefty stake down in the 19.35 race at Clonmel on Thursday evening. Davy Russell always looked like he had plenty of horse under him as he tracked the 2 leaders, and when he asked him for effort coming to the second last hurdle he duly kicked on. However, coming to the last the race was still in the balance as Allys Bubble came back to challenge but Russell rode out the winner well and won me a nice few quid.
I decided to reinvest some of that money into last night's League of Ireland football. Longford Town were a tasty 9/5 to beat a rubbish Finn Harps team, and they duly obliged for a nice winner. I also had them in a treble with Bray Wanderers and Sligo Rovers. Bray won comfortably and Sligo were leading going in at half time against Bohemians but within 10 minutes of the second half starting Bohs were in front, and held out for the win. It was disappointing to say the least but at least Longford won to get my single bet up.
On to todays sport, where I've picked out 4 horses and two different football accumulators. I'm going to start advising a point based system for bets. Basically, a 1 point bet is my standard bet, and a 5 point bet is my maximum bet. A 1 point bet could be varying stakes, depending on the punter. It could be a tenner to me but a euro to the next man, or 100 hundred euro to another. It depends on what your betting bank is.
Here's my bets for today:
Sandown 2.05 - Stratigic Gale - 1 point win @ 10/1
Lightly raced sort from a top yard, who won it's final race of last season. He looks the sort to have improvement in him, and despite being off the track for quite a while, fitness should not be lacking. The ground is a slight concern for him but I feel he has the potential to take to it.
Sandown 3.10 - Triggerman - 1 point e/w @ 12/1
This lad won well at Cheltenham 9 days ago, and while his mark is due to go up 7 pounds, he gets to race today off the same mark he won at Cheltenham. Dickie Johnson gets off him to ride Balthazar King today which is a negative, but Rhys Flint is a more than capable replacement. The ground and trip won't be a problem, and with Bet 365 paying 5 places, the 12/1 looks a very nice e/w price.
Musselburgh 3.40 - Dazzling Light - 1 point win @ 12/1
Has an absense to overcome, but has run well fresh in the past, including in this race last year. Looks to have a good draw in stall 2, and seems to be fairly treated by the handicapper. Has won a class 3 handicap before, and with today being a class 4 it looks like she has it in her to win this. Only 1 pound higher than that previous win, has course and distance form, and should be around the 6/1 mark in my opinion. Looks overpriced.
Sandown 4.50 - Wannabee King - 1 point e/w @ 16/1
Definitely has enough in his locker to be taking a race of this quality. Had a good 2009 but failed to build on that in 2010. As a result, his mark has slipped down to what is an attractive mark today. Ted Durcan takes the ride, who wouldn't exactly be one of my favourite jockeys, but if the horse is in the mood today then he should be able to get a good tune out of him. Trip and ground will suit, and 16/1 looks very overpriced on it's previous form.
Football accumulator #1:
Palermo v Napoli - Both teams to score
Blackpool v Newcastle - Both teams to score
Hull v Middlesbrough - Both teams to score
Watford v Barnsley - Both teams to score
Millwall v Preston - Both teams to score
Around 13/1 or so.
Football accumulator #2:
Sunderland to beat Wigan
Aston Villa to beat Stoke
Notts County to beat Swindon
Gillingham to beat Barnet
Around 23/1 or so.
The second accumulator is a bit of a longshot and only small stakes have been played. Sunderland need a win badly and I feel today is the day they get it.
That's enough for one day! Have a good one.
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Loved the write up about Seamies Dream. Go on you good thing!
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